When You Hear Hooves, Think Horses, Not Zebras

Humans love complexity.

We trust things that seem complicated and ignore those that are simple but proven to work.

It’s a bias that plays out across a bunch of different fields — science, finance, and of course, fitness.

And so long as we value complexity, there’ll always be someone happy to take that value and cash it in (I’m looking at you, Joel Seedman).

People like this claim to know something the rest of us don’t.

They swear this “one weird trick” will solve your problem.

When you listen to them talk, it’s hard not to question your entire approach.

Should you be doing 90-degree eccentric isometrics? Is your sleep position killing your gains? Should you be following an Ancestral diet? Is that why you’re not seeing the progress you want?

The likelihood is no, probably not.

Occam’s Razor proposes that when presented with multiple explanations for a phenomenon, we should choose the one that requires the fewest assumptions.

In other words, the simplest answer is usually the right one.

As a coach, I see complexity bias all the time.

People assume their lack of progress is because of that one exercise they’re not doing or the supplement they’re not taking.

And it makes sense — it’s easy to reach for training programs that promise dramatic results quickly than it is to overhaul your lifestyle and actually train hard consistently long-term.

But this kind of thinking is unhelpful in the long run.

When you put too much effort into the things that don’t matter and not enough into tried-and-true methods that get results, you’ll end up spinning your wheels. And your progress will reflect it.

That’s not to say that solving your problems is easy or that the complex answer is never the right one.

But if you’re struggling to achieve your goals right now, instead of scouring the internet for more complexity, ask yourself: what simple things could I be doing better?

When in doubt, I like to refer back to the Big Rocks and Pebbles.

This is a popular analogy used to explain the importance of prioritising tasks.

It can be applied to a bunch of different areas of life, and you might have heard it used in relation to fitness.

In this context, the Big Rocks represent the most important aspects of training and nutrition that should be prioritised, like how often you train and how close to failure you get.

The Pebbles, on the other hand, represent the less important aspects, like the specific exercises you choose or whether you’re taking creatine.

While these actions can be beneficial, they shouldn’t take priority over the Big Rocks.

So how do you know what’s important and what’s not? In The Muscle and Strength Training Pyramid, Sports Scientist Eric Helms organised training variables into a hierarchy.

The Pyramid is an organizational structure that places the most important priorities of training in a hierarchy…The most important elements of your training program are at the bottom; notice they have the largest area…It is likely that 80% of your progress will be made by focusing on these bottom three or four levels, and only the very small finishing touches will be affected by the last levels.

The pyramid came about from a common problem Helms was seeing:

Something I learned from consulting with people in these one-on-one discussions is that typically, the reason they aren’t getting to where they want to be is that they don’t have a system. They don’t have an understanding of prioritization, and they can’t differentiate between big rocks and pebbles.

As a coach, this is something I see all the time: people who have been overloaded with information and try to fit the little rocks in before the big ones.

I was no different.

For years I couldn’t understand why I wasn’t seeing the bicep growth I wanted.

I thought there must have been some trade secret I wasn’t in on yet, and I tried my hand at a bunch of weird curl variations Athlean-X told me would address the problem.

Needless to say, I didn’t see the results I was promised.

Instead, actual progress in the size of my biceps came from solid, basic principles like training them first in a session, training them more often, decreasing my proximity to failure, and eating to fuel growth.

So, how do you actually make sure you’re fitting the big rocks in before the pebbles?

As Trexler says, you need to have a system that prioritises what matters most.

That is, a structured training program that addresses the bottom 3 or 4 levels of the pyramid. For most people, addressing that will be the key to getting results.

For example, if you’re trying to get stronger and build muscle, instead of asking:

• Should I be using free weights or machines?
• Should I do 8 or 12 reps?
• What brand of protein powder should I buy?

Ask yourself:

• Am I following a structured training program?
• Am I training close enough to failure?
• Am I eating in a caloric surplus?

If the answer to any of those is no, it might be worth rethinking the Big Rocks of your approach.

Get those in order, and the results will come. And if you’re not sure how to achieve any of that, feel free to reach out.